There are a few
events that are lined up in the current week on global as well as domestic
front. Let’s take a look a few important ones.
On the domestic
front, apart from the results seasons RBI Monetary Policy is also being
scheduled on August 9, 2016. Being the last policy announcement form the outgoing
Governor Raghuram Rajan, we are not expecting any rate cuts to be announced in
the policy meet. However it would be important understand what indications
Raghuram Rajan provides to new Governor on the inflation front. Usually
Raghuram Rajan has a habit of surprising the markets. As stated earlier we may
not get any rate cut, however many straight forward comments on economic front
may be given.
Other domestic
news would be Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data being announced on
August 12, 2016. We have seen marginal improvement happening on the IIP figures
in the preceding announcement (May 2016 IIP was 1.20 percent). We expect
positivity to continue in current month announcement as well. For June 2016 the estimates are at 3.40
percent. We are expecting the IIP numbers to be above the street estimates.
Apart from this
inflation numbers would also be announced on August 12, 2016. For June 2016 the
CPI stood at 5.77 percent. This was marginally lower than the forecast of 5.94
percent. For July 2016 we are expecting the CPI to be at 6 percent. However
with vegetable prices witnessing a decline it would be another month where we
expect Inflation to remain under the forecast levels.
On the global front
China CPI and PPI (Year on Year) would be announced on August 9, 2016. Even manufacturing production
for Month on Month would be announced for UK as on August 9, 2016.
As for USA retail and core retail sales for month
on month basis would be announced on august 12, 2016. The below image provides
a clear idea of events lined up for the week.
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