Sunday 30 October 2016

Godrej Properties Ltd– Forming Inverted H&S Pattern.

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Godrej Properties Ltd on a daily chart stock price is making higher high and higher low pattern, with increase in volumes. Also we witnessed stock price is trading above the 20 DMA; indicate stock is well placed above the support level. On chart stock price is forming a inverted head and shoulder pattern, which add more bullishness for the stock price.
 
If one were to go by the volume data, a higher upswing is seen on the stock price. Trader or investor can accumulate at Rs.365 level for the target of Rs. 385 levels, with Rs 354 stop loss on closing basis.


Thursday 27 October 2016

PNB Gilts Ltd– Rounding Pattern Breakout

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PNB Gilts Ltd on a daily chart stock price is making higher high pattern, with increase in volumes. Also we witnessed stock price is trading above the 20 DMA, indicate stock is well placed above the support level. On chart stock price has given the breakout of rounding pattern at Rs. 36, indicate stock price can rally another 30%.
If one were to go by the volume data, a higher upswing is seen on the stock price. Trader or investor can accumulate at Rs.36 for the target of Rs. 50 levels, with Rs 31 stop loss on closing basis.


Wednesday 26 October 2016

GATI Ltd – On the verge of breakout.

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GATI Ltd on a daily chart stock price is making higher high pattern, with increase in volumes. Also we witnessed stock price is trading above the 20 DMA, indicate stock is well placed above the support level. On chart stock price is on the verge of breakout of ascending triangle pattern, any trade or closed above Rs. 145 level, stock price can rally Rs. 162 level.


If one were to go by the volume data, a higher upswing is seen on the stock price. Trader or investor can accumulate above Rs.145 for the target of Rs. 162 levels, with Rs 136 stop loss on closing basis.


Tuesday 25 October 2016

NTPC Ltd – Higher High Pattern. (Entry Price: 152)

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NTPC ltd on a daily chart stock price is making higher high pattern, with increase in volumes. Also we witnessed stock price was trading below 20 DMA from last 30 trading session, but from last two trading session stock price has closed above the same, indicate stock is well placed above the support level. Momentum oscillator RSI having more room left on upside, which add more bullishness for the stock price.


If one were to go by the volume data, a higher upswing is seen on the stock price. Trader or investor can accumulate at Rs.152 for the target of Rs. 164 levels, with Rs 147 stop loss on closing basis.


Monday 24 October 2016

Tarmat Ltd – Ascending Triangle Pattern Breakout.

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Tarmat ltd on a daily chart stock price is making higher high pattern, also its trading above 20 DMA, indicate stock is well placed above the support level. On a daily chart stock price at Rs. 52.75 has given the breakout of the upper level of ascending triangle pattern, indicate stock price can rally towards Rs. 78 level most likely. Momentum oscillator RSI having more room left on upside, which add more bullishness for the stock price.


If one were to go by the volume data, a higher upswing is seen on the stock price. Trader or investor can accumulate at Rs.52.75 for the target of Rs. 78 levels, with Rs 44 stop loss on closing basis.


Friday 21 October 2016

DCM Shriram Ltd – Cup and Handle Pattern

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DCM Shriram ltd on a daily chart stock price is making higher high pattern, also its trading above 20 DMA, indicate stock is well placed above the support level. On a weekly chart stock price at Rs. 259.50 has given the breakout of cup and pattern at Rs. 244, indicate stock price can rally towards Rs. 320 level most likely. Momentum oscillator MACD heading north to give positive crossover, which add more bullishness for the stock price.


If one were to go by the volume data, a higher upswing is seen on the stock price. Trader or investor can accumulate at Rs.259 for the target of Rs. 320/380 levels, with Rs 244 stop loss on closing basis.


Thursday 20 October 2016

Adani Ports – Ascending Triangle Breakout.

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Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone ltd on a daily chart stock price is making higher high pattern, also its trading above 20 DMA, indicate stock is well placed above the support level. On a daily chart stock price at Rs. 285.20 has given the breakout of upper level of ascending triangle pattern at Rs. 277.25, indicate stock price can rally towards Rs. 330 level most likely. Momentum oscillator MACD has given the positive crossover, which add more bullishness for the stock price.


If one were to go by the volume data, a higher upswing is seen on the stock price. Trader or investor can accumulate at Rs.285 for the target of Rs. 330 levels, with Rs 266 stop loss on closing basis.




PNB Housing Finance - IPO Meeting Takeaways

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Price Band                           - Rs 750-775
Issue Date                           - October 25, 2016 to October 27, 2016
Lot Size                                 - 19

Important Take Away

·         Total issue size Rs 3100 crore
·         Price band Rs 750 to 775
·         Dilution 23.45 to 23.95%
·         Fresh equity issue no OFS
·         Pre issue capital Rs 126.9 crore
·         Post issue capital Rs 167 crore
·         Pre issue Net worth Rs 2204 crore
·         Post issue net worth Rs 5345 crore (on upper band)
Company's net profit growth was 61% CAGR for last 4 yrs. FY16 PAT at Rs 327 cr & Q1FY17 at Rs 96 crore

Company has RoA of 1.19% and RoE of 17.4%
NIM at 2.98% with lowest cost of borrowing at 8.65% led by high reliance on NCD 53% of borrowing, followed by deposit 25%, 20% CP, 10% NHB and 7% Bank loan
·         The company has 47 branches in 28 location with top 7 cities contribute 70% of business.
·         Geographic mix include 40% north, 30% west and 30% south.
·         The company has 62% Home loan, 18% LAP, 9% construction loan and 11% LTD and corporate loans.

·         The company has 70% Loan toward Housing loan and 30% toward Non Housing segment
·         The company has 45% self-employed customers and 55% salaried customers
·         Cost to income ratio stands at 25% and operational expenses to a good assets at 0.73%
·         65% of retail loans are for resale properties and rest is for under construction properties
·         The company has 85% of its book in retail remaining 15% in corporate
In LAP segment 85% customers are self-employed with an age of 44 to 55 years and ticket size of Rs 54 lakh, LTV is 46%, and 85% are self-occupied residential properties.
The company has 70% loans in variable rate
The company source 55% of business from DSAs
The company has around 1078 DST which company source from team lease and on payroll of team lease
The company has less than 10% presence in rural
The company has leverage of 15x which is very high
Asset quality of the company is robust with GNPA at 0.22% with NNPA at 0.14%. However 76% of the book has less than 2 year’s tenure since disbursement. On 2yr lag basis GNPA stands at 0.6%

Valuation: The Company has book value of Rs 169 for FY16 which is 4.5x p/be Pre issue. Post issue BVPS is Rs 320 which is 2.4x and on FY17E BVPS is Rs 342 which is 2.3x p/be and on FY18 BVPS is Rs 377 which is 2x p/bv.



Valuation Chart



Wednesday 19 October 2016

TATA Chemicals Ltd – Symmetrical Triangle Breakout.

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Tata Chemicals ltd on a daily chart stock price is making higher high pattern, also its trading above 20 DMA, indicate stock is well placed above the support level. On a daily chart stock price at Rs. 566.20 has given the breakout of upper level of symmetrical triangle pattern at Rs. 547, indicate stock price can rally towards Rs. 610 level most likely. Momentum oscillator MACD has given the positive crossover, which add more bullishness for the stock price.


If one were to go by the volume data, a higher upswing is seen on the stock price. Trader or investor can accumulate at Rs. 567 for the target of Rs. 610 levels, with Rs 547 stop loss on closing basis.


Tuesday 18 October 2016

Elecon Engineering Co. Ltd – Ascending Triangle Breakout.

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Elecon Engineering Co. ltd on a daily chart stock price is making higher high pattern, also its trading above 20 DMA, indicate stock is well placed above the support level. On a weekly chart stock price at Rs. 70.50 has given the breakout of upper level of ascending triangle pattern at Rs. 66.75, indicate stock price can rally towards Rs. 96 level most likely. Momentum RSI is rising have more room left on upside, which add more bullishness for the stock price.


If one were to go by the volume data, a higher upswing is seen on the stock price. Trader or investor can accumulate at Rs. 70.50 for the target of Rs. 85/96 levels, with Rs 63 stop loss on closing basis.


Monday 17 October 2016

Trends In Rural Spending Vindicates India Consumption Story!

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After a long time I got a chance to go for a trip along with my family. It was a much needed break after a stressful scenario in the financial markets that had been keeping the financial analysts on their toes. Considering the time constraints and most importantly, the economical angle, we decided to visit a small village near Nagpur where my friend owns a farm and had arranged for sort of get-together. The plan also included a visit to the Tadoba Tiger Sanctuary. But though I was on leave, my analyst mind wouldn’t stop reflecting on the current economic situation and making observations of how this was impacting things around me. And I was quite surprised to see that while we in the large cities have been harping on the slower than expected GDP growth, there were hardly any such effects that could be witnessed in the rural places.

To narrate an incident, I stopped at an HPCL-owned petrol pump to fill up fuel outside the city limits to take advantage of the price difference and while waiting in the queue I chatted up a pump attendant who said that there had been actually been an increase in sales due to a significant rise in the number of two-wheelers owned by those living in the villages. Our next stop was at a roadside eatery for snacks and tea and there again I saw a huge rush of patrons. The owner admitted that business had been booming and he had recently hired more help to cater to the increasing clientele. He even proudly pointed out the new car that he had recently purchased. And to top it, he had just bought a recently launched Samsung cell phone that must have cost him nothing less than Rs 30,000.

When we reached Tadoba, there was another surprise for me.  The MTDC resort was already packed. While those in the cities have been curtailing their holiday plans, here all the cottages had been booked, indicating that there was more than enough money to splurge in the hinterland areas. In fact, the staff at the resort could be seen wearing branded clothes and accessories, one of them sporting Nike shoes which he said had been purchased from an outlet in Nagpur. Were those living in the rural regions immune from the effects of inflation? I wondered. This turned out to be a regular occurrence and I saw men in small towns spending money on soft drinks and expensive cigarettes and women shopping to their heart’s content in clothes stores and at the goldsmiths.

A grocery shop owner close to my friend’s farm said that there was a lot of demand for FMCG goods, especially those priced under Rs 10 or Rs 15. In fact, he had just received an award from a well-known biscuit making company for recording a good volume of sales. Recession apparently did not loom large as a monster in these regions. In all those tier 3 cities what I notices was all branded Air Conditioners (Usually there were Coolers).


What it implies is that the ground reality in the smaller towns and villages may be quite different from what we assume in the large metros. Inflation has been hitting us hard in the cities whereas those in the rural areas do not seem to have heard of it at all. Strange, wouldn’t you say? Maybe it wouldn’t be a bad idea to indulge in some reverse migration from the city to a village.

Karur Vysya Bank Ltd – On the verge of breakout.

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Karur Vysya Bank ltd on a daily chart stock price is making higher high pattern, also its trading above 20 DMA, indicate stock is well placed above the support level. On a daily chart stock price at Rs. 478.90 is the verge of breakout of downward sloping trend line, any trade or closed above 479, stock price can rally towards Rs. 520/540 level most likely. Momentum RSI is rising have more room left on upside, which add more bullishness for the stock price.


If one were to go by the volume data, a higher upswing is seen on the stock price. Trader or investor can accumulate above Rs. 479 for the target of Rs. 520/540 levels, with Rs 460 stop loss on closing basis.


Thursday 13 October 2016

Electrosteel Castings Ltd – Cup and Handel Pattern Breakout.

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Electrosteel Castings ltd on a daily chart stock price is making higher high pattern, also its trading above 20 DMA & 50 DMA, indicate stock is well placed above the support level. On a daily chart stock price at Rs. 25.25 has given the breakout of Cup and Handel Pattern at Rs. 24.45, indicate rally will continue towards north, which will take it towards another 25 percent.


If one were to go by the volume data, a higher upswing is seen on the stock price. Trader or investor can accumulate at Rs. 25 for the target of Rs. 28/29.50 levels, with Rs.23 stop loss on closing basis.


Monday 10 October 2016

Tv18 Broadcast Ltd – Rounding Pattern Breakout.

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Tv18 Broadcast ltd on a daily chart stock price is making higher high and higher low pattern, also its trading above 20 DMA & 50 DMA, indicate stock is well placed above the support level. On a daily chart stock price at Rs. 49.70 has given the breakout of rounding pattern at Rs. 48.70, indicate rally will continue towards north. Momentum oscillator MACD on weekly chart is on the verge to give positive crossover, which add more bullishness for the stock price.


If one were to go by the volume data, a higher upswing is seen on the stock price. Trader or investor can accumulate at Rs. 49.50 for the target of Rs. 62/68 levels, with Rs.44 stop loss on closing basis.


Friday 7 October 2016

Inox Leisure Ltd – Symmetrical Triangle Breakout.

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Inox Leisure ltd on a daily chart stock price is making higher high, also its trading above 20 DMA & 50 DMA, indicate stock is well placed above the support level. On a daily chart stock price at Rs. 272.20 has given the breakout of symmetrical triangle pattern at Rs. 268, indicate rally will continue towards north, which will take it towards the previous high swing. Momentum oscillator MACD on daily chart is on the verge to give positive breakout, which add more bullishness for the stock price.


If one were to go by the volume data, a higher upswing is seen on the stock price. Trader or investor can accumulate at Rs. 272 for the target of Rs. 292/310 levels, with Rs.259 stop loss on closing basis.


Thursday 6 October 2016

Gail (India) Ltd – Rounding Pattern Breakout.

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Gail (India) ltd on a daily chart stock price is making higher high and higher low, also its trading above 20 DMA & 50 DMA, indicate stock is well placed above the support level. On a weekly chart stock price at Rs. 416.60 has given the breakout of rounding pattern at Rs. 403, if today stock price closed above the same then coming week rally will continue towards north, which will take it towards the previous high swing. Momentum oscillator MACD on weekly chart is on the verge to give positive breakout, which add more bullishness for the stock price.


If one were to go by the volume data, a higher upswing is seen on the stock price. Trader or investor can accumulate at Rs. 414 for the target of Rs. 464/480 levels, with Rs.391 stop loss on closing basis.

Wednesday 5 October 2016

Apollo Tyres Ltd – Rounding Pattern Breakout

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Apollo tyres ltd on a daily chart stock price is trading above 20 DMA & 50 DMA, indicate stock is well placed above the support level. On a daily chart stock price at Rs. 229.15 has given the breakout of rounding pattern at Rs. 223, indicate rally will continue towards north. Momentum oscillator RSI on daily chart have more room left on upside, which add more bullishness for the stock price.


If one were to go by the volume data, a higher upswing is seen on the stock price. Trader or investor can accumulate at Rs. 229 for the target of Rs. 242/248 levels, with Rs.223 stop loss on closing basis.


Tuesday 4 October 2016

Union Bank of India – Closed near breakout

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Union Bank of India on a daily chart stock price is trading above 20 DMA & 50 DMA, indicate stock is well placed above the support level. On a daily chart stock has formed the ascending triangle pattern and its closed near the breakout, any trade above Rs. 154 level stock price can rally more than 30 percent, indicate rally will continue towards north. Momentum oscillator MACD on a daily chart is on the verge of positive breakout, which add more bullishness for the stock price.

If one were to go by the volume data, a higher upswing is seen on the stock price. Trader or investor can accumulate above Rs. 154 for the target of Rs. 177/185 levels, with Rs.143 stop loss on closing basis.


Monday 3 October 2016

Vedanta Ltd – Closed near breakout

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Vedanta Ltd on a daily chart stock price is trading above 20 DMA & 50 DMA, indicate stock is well placed above the support level. On a daily chart stock has formed the ascending triangle pattern and its closed near the breakout, any trade above 179.40 stock price can rally more than 30 percent, indicate rally will continue towards north. Momentum oscillator MACD uptrend is intact, which add more bullishness for the stock price.

If one were to go by the volume data, a higher upswing is seen on the stock price. Trader or investor can accumulate above Rs. 179.40 for the target of Rs. 230/242 levels, with Rs.160 stop loss on closing basis.