Sunday 31 July 2016

Monday's Short term momentum calls...

Unknown 19:48:00 No comments :
Good Morning all!

Firstly, what to expect from markets this week?

If Nifty manages to close above 8666, then it would rise immediately towards 8878. Looking at the weekly chart, Nifty could find profit booking during the fag end of this week; probably second half of Thursday and Friday. Till Wednesday, it is expected to rise and continue bullish momentum.

Here are our 3 short term momentum calls for today.

1. AKZOINDIA

 After being in a long consolidation phase, Akzo Nobel has given a breakout last week and have been moving in a small upward moving channel. The upside is still intact and the stock will face resistance at 1750, however this stock has more upside and could move towards 1800 levels.

2. ALLCARGO

 This stock is in a perfect parabolic channel. We expect it to raise further with increased momentum, especially with GST discussion on in Monsoon session. The climax would come once the GST bill is passed officially.

3. TNPL

 This paper company's price action can be channelized and we can find there more steam left for this company to push prices past 300 mark. Our price target for this company (through short term momentum) would be around 320 - 350.

Is Buyback A Good Investment Opportunity? Our Take On ADF Foods Buy Back.

Astute Investor 08:20:00 No comments :
How many of you will be happy if a stock you had invested in underperforms or declines, especially at a time when the company is conducting share buyback which is actually seen as a cushion for downside. We know the answer - NO One. Rather primary objective of investing in such stocks is to generate better returns. However there is one person who thinks differently and his views matter a lot when it comes to investing in stock markets. We are talking about none other Than the God of Stock Market-Warren Buffet.
In one letter to his shareholders Buffet commented on irrational reaction of many investors to change in stock prices during the buy back. He stated “When Berkshire buys stock in a company that is repurchasing shares, we hope for two events: First, we have the normal hope that earnings of the business will increase at a good clip for a long time to come; and second, we also hope that the stock under performs in the market for a long time as well”. Confused? However Buffet explains it in very simple manner. According to him one should wish the stock price to languish during the buyback period as it automatically results in higher stake.

For example if the company has 1 lakh outstanding shares and we hold 5000 shares in the company then our holding in the company works out at 5 per cent. As the company carries out a buy back, the number of outstanding shares will reduce. Suppose the company announces a buy back amounting to Rs 10 lakh at a maximum price of Rs 150. If the stock price remains at Rs 150, company can buy back only 6667 shares resulting in 93333 shares outstanding. As a result our stake of 5000 shares in the company will increase to 5.36 per cent. However, if the stock price declines to Rs 100, company can buy back 10,000 shares (Resulting into 90000 outstanding shares) taking our stake to 5.56 per cent. With a primary idea that the company performs well after the buyback and profitability increases, the higher stake serves as a benefit.

So does it make sense to invest in companies carrying out a buyback?  If we go by the primary logic of Buffet that earnings of the business will increase at a good clip for a long time to come, it surely makes a good opportunity for a longer period of time. However if someone is looking for capital appreciation in short term, this may not be the right strategy.

Why are we discussing is ADF Foods has informed BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on July 27, 2016 has approved a buyback of Equity Shares at a price not exceeding Rs 125 per equity share of face value Rs. 10 each for an aggregate amount not exceeding Rs 18 crore. In view of the same, the Board did not declare interim dividend on the equity shares of the Company.

If we consider the above article where usually the fall in share price is considered good if it is during the buyback. We expect ADF Foods which is into the processing of dry fruits and other ready to eat products, is likely to post a good financial performance. We expect the price to sustain at current levels. Those looking for long term investment horizon of 12 to 18 can invest in the counter.

Friday 29 July 2016

IRB Infrastructure Developers Bags Large Order - Improves Sentiments In Road Developers Sector

Astute Investor 06:50:00 No comments :
It seems that the kind of Infrastructure orders that were supposed to get rolling the Indian economic growth have finally started to pour in order books of infrastructure companies. And India’s largest integrated infrastructure development and construction company in India with significant experience in the toll roads and highways sector has won a larger order for a road project. The company’s press release suggested that IRB Infrastructure & Developers bagged Rs. 2,100 Crore Udaipur to Rajasthan/ Gujarat Border project from NHAI. The project is for six laning from Udaipur to Rajasthan/ Gujarat Border of around 113 kms. Here IRB has offered Premium of Rs. 163.8 Crores to NHAI. Subject to award, Construction order book will stand to increase to Rs. 10,000 crore.

IRB press release suggested that it merged as a preferred bidder for the project of Six laning from km 287.400 to km 401.200 section of NH-8. The estimated project cost of the company is approximately Rs. 2,100 crores with the concession period for the same is 21 years including construction period of 910 days. The total order book has to be executed in the next four years.  This will boost the Company’s construction order book visibility for next three to four year.

IRB has been a major company in the BOT projects and has a great execution track record. We think the order improves sentiments in the road developers segment overall. Further the new company Dilip Buildcon is also tapping the primary market floor. As a result rerating is likely to occur in the road development sector as a whole. In short term we expect the stock to remain in positive zone. 

Birla Corporation Ltd. - Flag Pattern Breakout

Gupta Ghanshyam 04:54:00 No comments :

Birla Corporation Ltd. on a daily chart, we witnessed stock price  has given a breakout of ‘Flag Pattern’ at Rs. 551.40 and price has closed above the same, indicate  stock will extend its positive rally towards Rs. 737 levels, which is 33 percent, suggesting it has potential up move in coming trading sessions.


Trader or investor can accumulate for the target of  Rs. 737 level, with Rs. 521 stop loss on closing basis.


Thursday 28 July 2016

Short term momentum calls for 29th July, 2016.

Unknown 19:45:00 No comments :
Today we bring to you two charts, which are most likely to breakout on the upside. These charts are identical and picturize similar price action formation. Once broken out of the channel these two scrips has the potential to move rapidly on the upside.

1. India Cements:

 Having moved in a channel, the price has almost peaking out; however with volumes kicking in at the very fag end of the upper channel we believe it to breakout of the channel moving towards 135 - 150 levels.

2. CESC:

 Similar chart to that of India Cements, here too the price action has been channelized and most likely a breakout on the upside is possible. The breakout implication for this stock would be around 640 - 660.

IPO Analysis : S. P. Apparels

Astute Investor 10:59:00 No comments :
S.P. Apparels :

Indian equity market is in a sweet spot and the soring indices are clearly indicating towards the same. And as the secondary markets are soaring, there has been a lot of buzz being witnessed in the primary markets as well. With some of the IPOs getting a great response and amazing listing gains, there was expected to be a line of IPOs tapping the markets. One thing however is noticeable and that is most of the business were a bit different from old economy companies. In simple terms it is the different business model of companies that attracted the investors towards IPOs. In such situation, one company with a plain vanilla business of garment manufacturing and exports is tapping the primary market floor.
Company name is S. P. Apparels is engaged in manufacturing and selling of knitted garments for infants and children in India. Company's product range includes body suits, sleep suits, tops, and bottoms.
Company also manufactures range of menswear garments consisting of shirts, polo shirts, T-shirts, trousers, jeans, sweaters, jackets and men's innerwear consisting of vests, briefs, boxer shorts and socks under the brand 'Crocodile' which is subsidiaries through an agreement with Crocodile International Pte Limited, Singapore.
As regards the manufacturing facilities, it operates 21 manufacturing facilities in and around the region of Avinashi in Tamil Nadu. Company has 4,874 sewing machines, eight cutting machines, 79 embroidery machines, 17 printing machines, 16,896 spindles and 22 dyeing machines. The company has two subsidiaries Crocodile Products Pvt Ltd and S. P. Apparels (UK).
They mainly export their products to United Kingdom. During FY16, the company exported approximately 35.98 million pieces of knitted garments for infants and children directly to its international customers, including TESCO and Primark. As regards the exports, the company for FY16 earned 86.13 percent of revenues. For FY15 and FY14 the exports were 84.62 percent and 79.84 percent respectively.
Company’s business can be divided into two segments viz garment segment (exports of knitted garment) and retail division (Crocodile retail brands). While we have already mentioned about contribution of export revenues, the Crocodile brand contribution for FY16 stood at 6.43 percent and For FY15 it was 3.39 percent. The company currently has 40 exclusive brand outlets of which 37 are owned and rest three are franchises.

Objects of the Issue
The offer consists of offer for sale and fresh issue. While the offer for sale proceeds would be going directly to exiting Private equity firm, the fresh issue proceeds will be utilised as follows. While Rs. 63 Crore will be provided for repayment of Debt expansion of 5000 spindles would require Rs 70 crore. Opening of new stores for Crocodile exclusive outlets will require Rs 28 crore. Expansion of dyeing facility would require Rs 4.9 crore. As regards the exclusive brand outlets, another 70 outlets would be added in next three years.

Financials and Conclusion
As regards the financial performance the company has posted decent performance in FY15 and FY16. For FY16 the company posted a topline of Rs 532.82 crore and EBITDA of Rs 90.14 Crore. The restated PAT for the quarter stood at Rs 34.71 crore. For FY15 the topline was Rs 472.56 crore and EBITDA stood at Rs 96.60 crore. The PAT was at Rs 10.04 Crore (including a MAT credit of Rs 6.88 crore).

We have certain concerns about the company. In 2006 the company had allotted the shares to Private equity firm at Rs 200. And after ten years that company is exiting at Rs 258-268. This is a clear indication that the company has not provided any kind of returns in last ten years. Further the margins are already at higher levels and we do not expect any margin improvement in coming years. Though the management has stated that the expansion would help them improve margins, we expect margins to remain under pressure. Further majority of its exports are to United Kingdom and hence the Brexit issue will surely affect its business. Further we feel the valuations are a bit stretched.
At higher price band of Rs 268 the number of shares for fresh issue to raise Rs 215 Crore will be around 88.23 lakh shares. The offer for sale of 9 lakh shares will raise Rs 24.12 Crore. On the extended equity the company even if manages to post 15 percent growth on bottomline, the higher price band price of Rs 268 would Result in P/E of idkar 19x. Which is much higher than the existing and much larger players like Gokaldas Exports etc. 

We feel the issue is better avoided by the investors.

Issue Details 
Company Name
S.P. Apparels
Price  Band
Rs 258-268
Amount Raise
Rs 215 Crore 
(Fresh Issue)
Post Issue Equity
2.68 crore 
Equity Shares
Our Rating
Avoid
Open Date
August 2, 2016
Closing Date
August 4, 2016
Promoter Name
Mr. P. Sundarajan
FV
Rs 10
Minimum Order Lot
55
Listing
NSE, BSE

By Prasanna Bidkar



Eicher Motors - can jump another 2000 points.

Gupta Ghanshyam 05:08:00 No comments :

Eicher Motors on daily chart, stock price at Rs. 21,099 has given a breakout of Rounding Pattern at Rs. 20,660, indicate stock price can run another 2000 points. Momentum oscillator MACD uptrend is intact, which add more bullishness for the stock price.

Trader or investor can accumulate for the target of 23,099 with 20,660 stop-loss on closing basis.


Tuesday 26 July 2016

Reliance Industries: Add to portfolio

Pentad Investment Advisory 19:57:00 No comments :
RELIANCE

The true wealth creator of last bull run; has been moving sideways for many years now. However, if one were to closely observe the price movement, we can find that it's been moving in a upward moving channel. It has tried a breakout once in 2014; but failed to cross over a major resistance at 1150 - 1180 zone. This stock is now ready for another upside move, move that could drive investors crazy. Fair target: 2000 in two year's time horizon.

#Nifty Bulls V/s. Bears: The power struggle continues...

Pentad Investment Advisory 11:15:00 No comments :
Nifty is facing stiff resistance at around 8666 – 8680. The zone is crucial and might play its part in the coming weeks. As we approached towards this zone, Bears who were unsuccessful since the day of Budget has started to pull string once again. Will they be successful once again?


We are going to analyse the Bull case and Bear case that’s going to play out in the coming weeks. This is valid only if we see a correction from 8666 mark. The confirmation of a correction happens only if Nifty closes below 8360. If not, we will resume upward journey towards 8878 and 9000+ mark.

If correction takes place…

Bull Case:


Bulls are hoping the correction do not last beyond 7750 and once if the correction ends anywhere above it, then that forms another inverted H&S; which would give bulls to push prices towards new high in the coming months. As it stands, if the correction begins, the probability for Bull Case scenario is more (~70%). The ideal correction would end somewhere around 7850 – 7750; keeping the prices within the bullish channel.

Bearish Case:


The bears are hoping on to an expanding triangle formation. They argue Nifty is in a triangle since the start of bear run from 9119. The smart move since the day of budget is just the “D” leg of the triangle and once “E” the last leg commences, it could take prices towards new lows (around 6400). While we cannot completely ignore this picture, it looks bit scary. Why I am considering this option is because some of the best brains in technical analysis industry is vouching for such a move. I have seen them making stunning forecasts like this in the past, and I have huge respect for them.

My assessment:

As it stands, I favour the Bullish stance. If the correction happens, it would end around 7850 – 7750. I would reconsider Bearish case only if Nifty fails to hold the said zone. I would also not be surprised if Nifty crosses and close above 8666 – 8680 and correction is been pushed further few months ahead. As it stands, be prepared for a healthy correction.

Praveen Pathiyil


Monday 25 July 2016

ZEEL: Entertained reloaded

Pentad Investment Advisory 21:19:00 No comments :
ZEEL

This stock has been in a perfectly trending channel. This stock now creating a new upward elevated channel, which could push prices higher and out of the current channel; making it to move higher rapidly. Fair target over the next two years: 750.

Andhara Bank: Add to portfolio

Pentad Investment Advisory 21:16:00 No comments :
ANDHARABANK

After being in the downward moving channel, the breakout is confirmed by retesting the channel last week. This Bank could give impressive return and could move towards 100 mark over the next two years.

Gillette: Ready for a razor cutting move

Pentad Investment Advisory 21:13:00 No comments :
GILLETTE

After completing the correction phase, this stock has been moving slowly on the upside with giving higher high-low on the weekly chart. The stock could move rapidly in the weeks to come and could take out the previous high of 5600.

Add to portfolio

Pentad Investment Advisory 20:12:00 No comments :

Add these three stocks to portfolio.
1. ZEEL
2. GILLETTE
3. ANDHRA BANK.

WILL UPDATE CHARTS ASAP...

PRAVEEN PATHIYIL

Sunday 24 July 2016

Nifty Outlook for 25th July, 2016

Pentad Investment Advisory 07:51:00 No comments :
NIFTY CHART OF THE DAY

Nifty Trend
In 60 minutes
In Daily
In Weekly
In Yearly
Nifty (Spot)
UP
UP
UP
UP

Market commentary: Nifty Spot
Nifty Spot: 8666 crucial, will Nifty manages to surpass?
Nifty is facing a stiff resistance in the area of 8580 – 8666. While there is no major downside seen for the moment, the overheated Nifty could enter into a corrective mode if fails to surpass 8666 this week. Technically if the correction takes place, it would be good and healthy sign for next leg up to resume. As it stands, the downside is seen around 7800 – 7750. Until Nifty holds those levels, we are in a long term bull run. On the flip side, if Nifty manages to surpass 8666, it could further heat(en) up towards 8800 – 9000 mark. The short term would be reversed only on a close below 8480, till then one can drive the market on the long side.
Nifty Spot: The next leg down will commence soon, watch out for 7980 – 7950 to be broken first.
Let us sit back and analyse the entire move up right from 6825. 6825 was an important technical support level, which is exactly 50% retracement from the entire leg up which was in place from 2014. It was during the day of budget, due to announcement of 3.5% deficit and giving hope for a rate cut from central bank, the market move smartly from 6825. The hope rally began very swiftly. Then came less than anticipated rate cut, however there was still hope as governor said further rate cut is possible if monsoon is normal. We saw the largest drop post announcement in the entire leg up. Hope still continues as soon as MET department announced, we will have better than the normal monsoon, and Nifty moved towards 8500 mark. If you were to analyse, one thing is for sure, the entire move up was built on ‘hope’. Now it is time to test reality. If we can hold on to 6825 in the next leg down, we are going to see another Bull Run in Nifty, if not ‘hope’ would turn out to be ‘nightmare’.
Nifty Future: Positional & Intraday guidance
For intraday traders (Nifty Future) try to do jobbing on both the sides of market movement. You can use the levels given below to trade accordingly.
Instrument
Action
Entry
Target 1
Target 2
Target 3
Target 4
Stop Loss
Nifty (July Fut.)
Buy Above
8533
8552
8575
8598
8621
8510
Nifty (July Fut.)
Sell Below
8510
8491
8468
8445
8422
8533


A word of caution: Market getting heated up...

Pentad Investment Advisory 07:28:00 No comments :
Markets are getting heated up on the upside move (since day of budget), the correction is due round the corner. While there is no signs of a major downside (few great analyst whom I trust and follow is actually calling for a major downside), the healthy correction is due and could drag you down if being indiscipline. Exercise caution until Nifty fails to close above 8666.

Tata Power: Add to Portfolio

Pentad Investment Advisory 07:22:00 No comments :
TATAPOWER

The most reliable power company for retail consumption, is also reliable for long term wealth creation. Having bounced from a downside moving channel, now it has the potential to move upside with 120 - 150 target levels on the cards down the line for 2 years.

Federal Bank: Add to Portfolio

Pentad Investment Advisory 07:19:00 No comments :
FEDERALBNK

This little yet most powerful bank has more steam left in its kitty for upside. On all parameters, this bank looks good for a 2 year time horizon. This stock is definitely going to make it really really BIG...

Aurobindo Pharma: Add to portfolio

Pentad Investment Advisory 07:15:00 No comments :
AUROPHARMA

One stock which is making news amongst analyst is AuroPharma. Having broken the neckline of an inverted H&S, the stock is ready to hit the resistance at 820 levels. Once surpassed it could move up towards 900 mark. Add to portfolio with 2 year time horizon.

GHCL: More upside in making.

Pentad Investment Advisory 07:12:00 No comments :
GHCL

GHCL had a fantastic run upside and the move could be further fired up for an explosion. The final run up is yet to happen in this stock. Hold this stock for a final run up. Very Risky. Target 260 - 280.

25/07/2016: CMP: 225, Book Profits. Call Closed...

Gujarat Alkalies: Spice up in the channel

Pentad Investment Advisory 07:08:00 No comments :
GUJALKALI

This stock is in a perfect channel and we expect the channel to be broken out for more upside. If the channel breaks on the positive side, the move could be fast and furious. Fair target 280 - 320. 

25/07/2015: CMP: 267.1, Book PRofits, Call CLosed...

Techno Electric: Give it a shock...

Pentad Investment Advisory 07:03:00 No comments :
TECHNO

After being in a consolidation range, the breakout was phenomenon with strong volumes. The breakout is now been confined to a channel. If the channel holds, this could light up more in coming days. The target is 650 - 690.

26/07/2016: CMP: 622, Book Complete Profits. Call CLosed...

Thursday 21 July 2016

Stay light this weekend...

Pentad Investment Advisory 10:16:00 No comments :
Dear All,

At times we need to be light with our positions in the market. One such weekend starts today, though there is no major danger for underlying trend in market; a caution this weekend is recommended. We will start adding more stocks post Monday; considering Monday's outlook. As of now, I expect markets to rise higher from the second half of Monday next week. Till then stay light.

Happy weekend...

Praveen Pathiyil

Adlabs: Preparing for a BIG picture!

Pentad Investment Advisory 10:08:00 No comments :
ADLABS

After being in a long consolidation phase for almost 5 months, this stock is ready for a breakout. Once 93 is taken off, it could move towards 105 - 125 and higher in a very short span of time. 

26/07/2016: CMP 96.20, Book Profits, Call Closed...

Track Pad as on 21st July, 2016

Pentad Investment Advisory 03:25:00 No comments :
Since there are too many calls, I have added a track pad updated which shows all calls at one go...Please click the link to view it. Thank you.

Praveen Pathiyil

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B_J98eLYWsF2d0d6ZUdRaTNuQ00

Wednesday 20 July 2016

Raymond: The complete triangle!

Pentad Investment Advisory 09:36:00 No comments :
RAYMOND

Ths scrip has been moving within a pattern of triangle. The breakout of this triangle today gives us a breakout implication of around 510 and more. Looking at the MACD, it is evident that the breakout would make the implication to its full swing. 

24/07/2016: CMP: 458.45: Having fallen back inside the triangle, keep a cautious view on the stock. Please keep a SL @ 448, the base of the triangle...Risky can exit...

25/07/2016: CMP: 456, Book Loss, Call Closed...

Motherson Sumi: More room on upside in offing

Pentad Investment Advisory 09:28:00 No comments :
MOTHERSUMI

Having broken off the higher high, this stock has the potential to move little further towards 350 - 380 levels. This stock has just broken of the previous high close (on a day before brexit event). Though many stocks has surpassed the brexit after shocks, this is considered a lagger but not definitely a loser..

25/07/2016: CMP 319.10, Book complete profits...Call Closed...

ACC: Cementing it strong

Pentad Investment Advisory 09:22:00 No comments :
ACC

We have seen a quiet distinguishing pattern in ACC chart. A long consolidation, a sudden move; another long consolidation, a sudden move; and now its on its verge of breaking another consolidation. If the breakout happens i.e. a move above 1645 would take it to another new high of around 1700 - 1735. Considering other key indicator's this is more evident.

21/07/2016: CMP 1693, Book Complete Profits. Call Closed...

Bank Nifty Weekly Expiry Call...

Pentad Investment Advisory 01:32:00 No comments :
Buy 19100 CE (21th July) Expiry at 31 for a target of 60 tomorrow...

The call eroded all its value. Call closed.

Tuesday 19 July 2016

Nifty Outlook for 20th July, 2016

Pentad Investment Advisory 10:25:00 No comments :
NIFTY CHART OF THE DAY

Nifty Trend
In 60 minutes
In Daily
In Weekly
In Yearly
Nifty (Spot)
UP
UP
UP
UP

Market commentary: Nifty Spot
Nifty Spot: All eyes on GST bill. Nifty ended on a positive note.
Nifty did took support at the lower part of our yellow channel; near 8480 and bounced to close on a positive note. Now all eyes are on GST Bill. Technically, as Nifty holds 8480 mark, we could expect the momentum to continue towards 8717 mark which marks the top part of the long trending upward channel highlighted in green. The short term would be reversed only on a close below 8480, till then one can drive the market on the long side. Adding to the technical, news flow from the on-going monsoon session would act as a booster or it could be a trend breaker.
Nifty Spot: The next leg down will commence soon, watch out for 7980 – 7950 to be broken first.
Let us sit back and analyse the entire move up right from 6825. 6825 was an important technical support level, which is exactly 50% retracement from the entire leg up which was in place from 2014. It was during the day of budget, due to announcement of 3.5% deficit and giving hope for a rate cut from central bank, the market move smartly from 6825. The hope rally began very swiftly. Then came less than anticipated rate cut, however there was still hope as governor said further rate cut is possible if monsoon is normal. We saw the largest drop post announcement in the entire leg up. Hope still continues as soon as MET department announced, we will have better than the normal monsoon, and Nifty moved towards 8500 mark. If you were to analyse, one thing is for sure, the entire move up was built on ‘hope’. Now it is time to test reality. If we can hold on to 6825 in the next leg down, we are going to see another Bull Run in Nifty, if not ‘hope’ would turn out to be ‘nightmare’.
Nifty Future: Positional & Intraday guidance
For intraday traders (Nifty Future) try to do jobbing on both the sides of market movement. You can use the levels given below to trade accordingly.
Instrument
Action
Entry
Target 1
Target 2
Target 3
Target 4
Stop Loss
Nifty (July Fut.)
Buy Above
8533
8552
8575
8598
8621
8510
Nifty (July Fut.)
Sell Below
8510
8491
8468
8445
8422
8533

The levels for the day remains the same.

Monday 18 July 2016

Nifty Outlook for 19th July, 2016

Pentad Investment Advisory 10:52:00 No comments :
NIFTY CHART OF THE DAY

Nifty Trend
In 60 minutes
In Daily
In Weekly
In Yearly
Nifty (Spot)
UP
UP
UP
UP

Market commentary: Nifty Spot
Nifty Spot: Will Nifty hold 8480 for the day?
Having broken 8500 in yesterday’s session, Nifty is moving very close towards the lower part of the yellow channel that we have highlighted in the chart. Technically, a close below 8480 only would turn nifty’s short term trend to negative. We expect a bounce from those levels if it holds for the day; and that bounce would carry the index towards 8717 mark. Let us wait and watch for the day, on how it reacts at 8480. One can trade on the long side as long as this channel holds.
Nifty Spot: The next leg down will commence soon, watch out for 7980 – 7950 to be broken first.
Let us sit back and analyse the entire move up right from 6825. 6825 was an important technical support level, which is exactly 50% retracement from the entire leg up which was in place from 2014. It was during the day of budget, due to announcement of 3.5% deficit and giving hope for a rate cut from central bank, the market move smartly from 6825. The hope rally began very swiftly. Then came less than anticipated rate cut, however there was still hope as governor said further rate cut is possible if monsoon is normal. We saw the largest drop post announcement in the entire leg up. Hope still continues as soon as MET department announced, we will have better than the normal monsoon, and Nifty moved towards 8500 mark. If you were to analyse, one thing is for sure, the entire move up was built on ‘hope’. Now it is time to test reality. If we can hold on to 6825 in the next leg down, we are going to see another Bull Run in Nifty, if not ‘hope’ would turn out to be ‘nightmare’.
Nifty Future: Positional & Intraday guidance
For intraday traders (Nifty Future) try to do jobbing on both the sides of market movement. You can use the levels given below to trade accordingly.
Instrument
Action
Entry
Target 1
Target 2
Target 3
Target 4
Stop Loss
Nifty (July Fut.)
Buy Above
8533
8552
8575
8598
8621
8510
Nifty (July Fut.)
Sell Below
8510
8491
8468
8445
8422
8533


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